* If we start up, and have never joined a quorum, and initial members are
specified, only include them in the monmap; put all others in the
extra probe list.
* We add missing members if necessary to make the monmap (and initial
quorum) the right size.
* If we probe someone that *has* participated in a successful quorum, we
get their monmap, and restart, so this is moot.
* We only call an election to create a new cluster if outside_quorum gets
big enough (it will only include initial members) and if it includes us.